Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies have taken it on the chin in calendar year 2026 (CY26) with the Nifty FMCG index falling over 6 per cent compared to the Nifty 50 dipping 0.8 per cent. Nifty FMCG is one of the worst-performing sectors on the NSE in CY26.
The bull-market in gold is not yet over and prices can rise to $6,200 an ounce (oz) by mid-2026, up nearly 25 per cent from current levels, according to UBS.
'Given that India underperformed emerging markets by 28 per cent in 2025, the worst performance in over 30 years, the timing of the sharp STT hike could have been better.'
'When markets go into a budget with excessive optimism, the risk of disappointment is higher.'
'A breakout above 158,000 to 160,000 could trigger the next leg higher toward 165,000 to 170,000.'
Worries about global politics and trade are pulling the Nifty 50 down. Experts say the market could drop further low.
Over 50 per cent, or 660 stocks, from the BSE 1000 index recorded negative returns during CY25.
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
The Nifty 50 index could rise around 24 per cent from current levels to 32,032 by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, Kotak Securities said in a recent note. "We value Nifty at a 10 per cent premium (at 22x) to the 10-year average price-to-earnings of 20x on 2027-28 estimated (E) earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 1,456, and arrive at a December 2026 Nifty target of 32,032," the analysts wrote.
Unless the primary market momentum slows, smallcap stocks will stay subdued.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
Companies are primarily using funds raised through fresh equity issuance to repay existing debt, followed by allocation for capital expenditure, according to a study by Bank of Baroda of over 200 filings with the market regulator between April and October 2025. The report stated that of these filings with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - covering both funds already raised in FY26 and future intent - 189 companies provided clear data on the purpose of the fund-raising.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
UBS has turned bullish on emerging markets (EM), including India, as it finds benign macro trends, positive momentum in earnings revisions, and resilient EM currencies helping these economies sustain higher valuations and attracting flows. Among regions, it has upgraded Mainland China to 'attractive' and China Tech to 'most attractive', while downgrading Philippines to 'neutral'.
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
'The pace of gold's ascent is striking, with prices rising from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz in just 36 days -- far quicker than the historical average of 1,036 days taken to achieve similar $500/oz gains.'
The strong domestic flow offset selling by foreign portfolio investors who pulled out $23.3 billion (Rs 2.03 trillion) from domestic equity markets in CY25.
'The outlook for the next Samvat is more constructive, as many of the earlier drags are gradually becoming supports.'
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